| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Bryant | 19-3 | 1228.7 | +0.0 | 1228.7 | 17.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Tulsa | 21-14 | 1228.7 | +23.3 | 1252.0 | 65.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 14-49 | 1252.0 | -38.8 | 1213.2 | 53.5% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | New Mexico | 20-38 | 1213.2 | -18.1 | 1195.1 | 27.1% |
| 7 | Oct 2 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 37-10 | 1195.1 | +61.1 | 1256.2 | 22.1% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | L | Liberty | 27-30 | 1256.2 | -23.3 | 1232.9 | 34.2% |
| 10 | Oct 22 2025 | L | Missouri State | 17-24 | 1232.9 | -20.8 | 1212.1 | 19.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 16-35 | 1212.1 | -9.3 | 1202.8 | 14.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 21-24 | 1202.8 | -26.5 | 1176.3 | 24.8% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Tennessee | 9-42 | 1176.3 | -2.0 | 1174.3 | 3.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | UTEP | 34-31 | 1174.3 | +43.4 | 1217.7 | 56.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Middle Tennessee | 24-31 | 1217.7 | -57.1 | 1160.6 | 59.9% |